Lithuania
vs
New Zealand
The relation between Lithuania and New Zealand is EXCELLENT, and they could be called STRATEGIC ALLIES, with an overall score of 9.13 out of 10.
Chance of conflict between both countries: extremely rare
Head to head: who leads each category
Lithuania
2.9M
New Zealand
5.3M
Leads
Lithuania
$95.2B
New Zealand
$264.1B
Leads
Lithuania
$2.6B
New Zealand
$3.0B
Leads
Lithuania
#73
New Zealand
#30
Leads
About this relationship
New Zealand recognized the restoration of Lithuanian independence in 1991, following the collapse of Soviet control over the Baltic states, and the two countries established formal diplomatic relations shortly thereafter, joining the wave of Western and Commonwealth states that moved quickly to affirm the Baltic republics' renewed statehood. The relationship has never carried the weight of a resident diplomatic mission in either capital; New Zealand's interests in Lithuania are handled through its embassy network in Europe, while Lithuania represents itself to New Zealand through diplomatic channels covering the wider Asia-Pacific region, a pattern typical of New Zealand's engagement with most smaller and mid-sized European states. A more distant human connection predates formal ties: among the displaced persons resettled in New Zealand in the years immediately following the Second World War were small numbers of Lithuanians fleeing Soviet occupation, who joined broader Baltic refugee communities and laid the groundwork for the modest Lithuanian-New Zealand cultural associations that persist today.
Bilateral trade between the two countries remains small in absolute terms, consistent with the geographic distance separating them and the absence of any major complementary industries, though it has been supported structurally by New Zealand's broader trade architecture with the European Union. New Zealand's free trade agreement with the EU, concluded in 2022 and entering into force in May 2024, extended preferential market access covering all EU member states, including Lithuania, and created a formal institutional channel, alongside existing World Trade Organization commitments, through which New Zealand agricultural exporters and Lithuanian manufacturers of machinery, furniture, electronics and chemical products can trade with somewhat improved conditions, even if actual trade volumes between the two countries remain limited.
Social and cultural exchange is similarly modest but not absent. Descendants of the postwar Lithuanian and wider Baltic refugee cohort maintain cultural societies, folk-dance and choral groups, and periodic community gatherings in centers such as Wellington and Auckland, sustaining a thread of Lithuanian heritage within New Zealand's broader multicultural society. Academic and professional contact has grown gradually since Lithuania's accession to the European Union and NATO in 2004 gave its citizens freer international mobility, with small numbers of Lithuanians pursuing study, working-holiday opportunities or permanent migration to New Zealand, and occasional cultural-exchange events, including visits by Lithuanian performing artists, adding further texture to an otherwise low-intensity relationship.
In the more recent period, the relationship has found its clearest expression through shared multilateral positions rather than direct bilateral initiatives. Both countries have been vocal supporters of Ukraine's territorial integrity following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, consistently aligning in United Nations votes condemning the aggression and in support for sanctions against Russia, a stance that carries particular resonance for Lithuania as a frontline NATO and EU member bordering both Belarus and the Kaliningrad exclave. New Zealand has also periodically extended solidarity statements and modest practical support, including humanitarian and reconstruction-linked assistance channeled through European and multilateral mechanisms, that indirectly reinforce Baltic security concerns, though detailed, confirmed bilateral initiatives specific to Lithuania beyond these general alignments were not extensively documented as of the time of writing and should be read as part of a broader pattern of shared values rather than a dense programme of direct cooperation.
Overall, New Zealand and Lithuania maintain a small but entirely amicable relationship, characterized less by substantial trade or population flows than by a shared commitment to multilateralism, the rules-based international order and support for Ukraine, alongside a quiet historical thread connecting the two countries through the postwar Baltic diaspora. Neither government has signaled any disagreement or friction in the relationship, and both are likely to continue engaging primarily through European Union and United Nations frameworks rather than through dedicated bilateral mechanisms in the years ahead.
Strengths & comparison
The position in the international influence ranking of New Zealand is 30, while Lithuania is situated 43 places below in the ranking (position 73). New Zealand maintains contact with 56 countries, while Lithuania maintains contact with 38 countries. New Zealand maintains an excellent relation with 11 countries, while in the case of Lithuania, this figure drops to 6.
About Lithuania
Lithuania is a country located in northeastern Europe, on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea. It is bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east and south, Poland to the south, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the southwest. The country has a population of about 2.8 million people, and its capital and largest city is Vilnius.
Lithuania gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1990 and has since become a member of the European Union and NATO. The country has a parliamentary democracy and a mixed economy that is heavily dependent on exports. The main industries in Lithuania include manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism.
Lithuania has a history of foreign occupation, including by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II. In recent years, it has faced challenges related to its relations with Russia and its efforts to diversify its energy sources away from dependence on Russian natural gas. Lithuania has also sought to strengthen its ties with the West and has actively participated in regional and international organizations such as the EU and NATO.
Geography & terrain
Mostly flat to gently rolling lowlands, dotted with forests, lakes, and rivers, with a short belt of coastal dunes in the west. Humid continental climate with maritime influence near the coast. Has a Baltic Sea coastline. The flat, open landscape offers little natural cover, historically leaving the country exposed to overland invasion across the North European Plain.
About New Zealand
New Zealand is a sovereign island country located in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. It is made up of two main islands, the North Island and the South Island, as well as several smaller islands. The country has a population of about 5 million people and its capital is Wellington, located on the southern tip of the North Island.
New Zealand is a parliamentary democracy with a constitutional monarchy. The head of state is Queen Elizabeth II, who is represented in the country by a governor-general. The government is led by the prime minister, who is the leader of the political party that holds the most seats in the Parliament.
New Zealand is a member of several international organizations, including the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the Commonwealth of Nations. It is also a member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance with the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
The economy of New Zealand is based largely on agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing. The country is known for its production of dairy products, meat, and wool, as well as its forestry and fishing industries. It is also a popular tourist destination, with attractions such as the Southern Alps, geothermal hot springs, and Maori cultural sites.
New Zealand has a diverse culture that is influenced by its indigenous Maori population and its British colonial history. The Maori language is an official language of the country, along with English. Maori culture is an important part of New Zealand's national identity, and the country has a strong tradition of Maori art, music, and dance.
Geography & terrain
Two main mountainous islands, with the Southern Alps running the length of the South Island and volcanic terrain on the North Island. Temperate maritime climate, wetter in the west. Entirely coastal, made up of islands with no land borders. Its extreme geographic isolation in the South Pacific has made it naturally very hard to invade, historically shielded more by distance than terrain.
| Lithuania |
New Zealand |
|
|---|---|---|
| Government type | Parliamentary republic | Parliamentary constitutional monarchy |
| GDP | $95.2B | $264.1BLeads |
| GDP per capita | $33.0K | $49.6KLeads |
| Military expenditure | $2.6B | $3.0BLeads |
| Military expenditure per capita | $910Leads | $563 |
| Land military expenditure (estimation) | $1.4BLeads | $899.6M |
| Air military expenditure (estimation) | $656.9M | $899.6MLeads |
| Naval military expenditure (estimation) | $525.5M | $1.2BLeads |
| Nuclear power | No | No |
| European Union | Member | Not a member |
| NATO | Member | Not a member |
Strengths & comparison
The capitals of Lithuania and New Zealand are approximately 17 333 km apart (straight-line distance). There is a standard time difference of about 10.0 hours between them.
Based on shared language, currency, economic profile, borders and international groups, Lithuania and New Zealand score a 10/100 similarity index. This is a fun, approximate metric — not a scientific one.
Excellent relation (7+/10) with both countries
Which side is each country closer to?
Comparing Lithuania's and New Zealand's scores against the same third countries shows where each one has a clear edge. Lithuania scores noticeably higher with: France, Sweden, Greece, Denmark, Palestine.New Zealand scores noticeably higher with: Japan, Malaysia, China, Estonia, Russia.
Let's suppose a hypothetical conflict occurs between both countries:
Solo scenario: Lithuania vs New Zealand
Allies scenario: Team Lithuania vs Team New Zealand
In a hypothetical conflict between Lithuania and New Zealand, probably, France will participate helping Lithuania.
No country will participate helping New Zealand.
Battle narrative
Initial phase
New Zealand's stronger air power gives it an edge in the initial stages of the conflict.
Force composition
Lithuania can also call on significantly more personnel, counting both active-duty and reserve forces. New Zealand's advantage extends to naval power as well. On the ground, Lithuania commits a larger share of its budget to land forces.
Ground campaign
Lithuania's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: The flat, open landscape offers little natural cover, historically leaving the country exposed to overland invasion across the North European Plain. Suwalki Gap would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The narrow land corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus that is Lithuania's and NATO's most exposed chokepoint on the alliance's eastern flank. New Zealand's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: Its extreme geographic isolation in the South Pacific has made it naturally very hard to invade, historically shielded more by distance than terrain. Auckland would likely be a focal point of the campaign: New Zealand's largest city, main port, and principal airport, forming the country's central logistics and population hub. New Zealand's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Prolonged conflict
New Zealand's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. Lithuania also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 2.8% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying Lithuania outright would likely prove costly given its terrain.
Overall assessment
New Zealand would be more likely to prevail in this matchup, with an estimated 55.8% probability of winning. Achieving a decisive victory over Lithuania — let alone occupying it — would likely be more difficult than that headline number suggests.
Initial phase
With both the bigger war chest and the stronger air force, Lithuania's team is well placed to seize the initiative early, striking key military and infrastructure targets first.
Force composition
Lithuania's team can also call on significantly more personnel, counting both active-duty and reserve forces. Lithuania's team's advantage extends to naval power as well.
Ground campaign
New Zealand's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: Its extreme geographic isolation in the South Pacific has made it naturally very hard to invade, historically shielded more by distance than terrain. Auckland would likely be a focal point of the campaign: New Zealand's largest city, main port, and principal airport, forming the country's central logistics and population hub. Lithuania's team's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Coalition
Lithuania's team goes into this conflict as a coalition of France and Lithuania. Fighting as part of a coalition brings combined strength, though coordinating several countries also adds logistical complexity.
Prolonged conflict
Lithuania's team's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. Lithuania's team also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 1.9% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying New Zealand's team outright would likely prove costly given its terrain.
Overall assessment
Overall, the numbers favor Lithuania's team, giving it an estimated 76.0% chance of coming out on top. Turning that edge into a decisive win over New Zealand's team — and holding any ground taken — would still be far from guaranteed.
Want to build your own teams? Try the War Simulator.