Five Hypothetical Matchups We Ran Through the War Simulator
2026-09-03 · by Jordi Fuster
We explained how the War Simulator actually works a little while back — what data drives it, and, just as importantly, what it isn't trying to predict. This time, instead of explaining the mechanism, we're just going to use it: five deliberately mismatched or provocative team-ups, with the real numbers the tool actually produced for each one.
One reminder before the results: every percentage below comes from comparing measurable national capacity — military spending, GDP, population, personnel — not from any model of terrain, alliances outside the two teams picked, or how an actual war would unfold. Treat these as "what does the raw capacity gap look like," not forecasts.
1. The United States vs China
The most obvious global matchup on the site, and also the closest result on this list: 54.2% to 45.8% in the United States' favor. Given how often "US vs China" gets framed as a foregone conclusion in either direction, the simulator's actual read is a near-toss-up — a reminder that China's combination of population, GDP and rapidly growing military spending has closed most of the raw-capacity gap that used to make this an easy call.
2. NATO's core five vs Russia
The United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Poland, combined, against Russia alone: 69.5% to 30.5%. This is the most lopsided result on the list, and it says less about Russia's real capabilities than about what happens, mathematically, when you stack five economies — three of them among the world's largest — against one. It's also a clean illustration of why the simulator lets you build teams rather than only comparing single countries: a lot of the most interesting real-world questions aren't "country A vs country B," they're "alliance vs country."
3. A BRICS-style five vs a G7-style five
China, India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa against the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan — about as close to a coin flip as this tool produces: 49.4% to 50.6%. Both blocs represent a huge share of world GDP and population, and the result reflects that: neither grouping has a clear raw-capacity edge over the other once you add up five economies on each side.
4. Taiwan and the United States vs China
A pairing that follows naturally from an earlier piece on this month's rising powers, where we noted how far apart Taiwan and China's relationship score sits from Taiwan and the US's. Team up Taiwan with the US against China, and the simulator gives the pairing 55.9% to 44.1% — close to the plain US-vs-China result above, since Taiwan's own military and economic weight, while real, is small next to either great power's.
5. Ukraine vs Russia
The one live conflict on this list, and deliberately included as a check on the tool's honesty about its own limits: 35.1% to 64.9% in Russia's favor, purely on population, GDP and military-spending capacity. It's a real gap, and it's also exactly the kind of number the simulator's own disclaimers exist for — the actual war has run for years longer than a simple capacity comparison would suggest it should have, because sustained conflict outcomes depend on far more than the four numbers this tool compares: external support, terrain, morale, and logistics chief among them. The gap between this percentage and reality is, in a strange way, the most useful thing this particular matchup shows.
Want to build your own? The War Simulator is open to any combination of the countries on the site — the more mismatched the pairing, the more interesting the per-country breakdown tends to be.