Afghanistan
vs
Turkmenistan
The relation between Afghanistan and Turkmenistan is GOOD, with an overall score of 6.09 out of 10.
Chance of conflict between both countries: very rare
Head to head: who leads each category
Afghanistan
43.8M
Leads
Turkmenistan
7.6M
Afghanistan
$17.8B
Turkmenistan
$49.8B
Leads
Afghanistan
$278.3M
Leads
Turkmenistan
$111.9M
Afghanistan
#54
Leads
Turkmenistan
#143
About this relationship
Turkmenistan and Afghanistan maintain extensive diplomatic and economic contacts despite Afghanistan's political instability.
Energy and connectivity are central to the relationship. Turkmenistan has promoted the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline and electricity and transport links with Afghanistan.
Turkmenistan also exports electricity and other goods to Afghanistan and has supported cross-border infrastructure projects.
The two countries cooperate on border security, trade and regional connectivity. Turkmenistan's policy of permanent neutrality has encouraged it to maintain dialogue with successive Afghan authorities.
Overall, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have an important economic relationship centered on energy, trade, transport and cross-border connectivity.
Strengths & comparison
The position in the international influence ranking of Afghanistan is 54, while Turkmenistan is situated 89 places below in the ranking (position 143). Afghanistan maintains contact with 35 countries, while Turkmenistan maintains contact with 21 countries. Afghanistan maintains an excellent relation with 6 countries, while in the case of Turkmenistan, this figure drops to 2.
About Afghanistan
Afghanistan is a country located in South and Central Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the south and east, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north, and China to the far northeast. The country has a complex history and has been a battleground for various powers throughout its history.
In recent times, Afghanistan has been embroiled in conflict for several decades, starting with the Soviet invasion in 1979 and continuing with the civil war that followed. The country has also been a major theater of operations in the War on Terror, with the United States and other countries intervening in the country after the September 11th attacks in 2001.
Since then, Afghanistan has seen significant political and social upheaval, including the rise and fall of the Taliban, the establishment of a new government, and ongoing violence and conflict with various militant groups. The country has also struggled with issues such as corruption, poverty, and a lack of infrastructure and development.
Despite these challenges, Afghanistan has made some progress in recent years, including holding successful elections and making progress on issues such as women's rights and education. However, the country still faces many challenges and will likely continue to be a focus of international attention for the foreseeable future.
Geography & terrain
Landlocked, no coastline. Rugged and mountainous, dominated by the Hindu Kush range, with arid plains and deserts in the south and west. Climate is arid to semiarid, with harsh winters at altitude. Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries.
About Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan is a country located in Central Asia, bordered by Kazakhstan to the northwest, Uzbekistan to the north and east, Afghanistan and Iran to the south, and the Caspian Sea to the west. It is the second-largest country in Central Asia by land area, after Kazakhstan.
Turkmenistan is a predominantly desert country, with a harsh, dry climate. It has a population of around 5 million people, and the official language is Turkmen. The country has a presidential system of government, and the current president is Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow.
Turkmenistan has a rich history and culture, with strong influences from the ancient Silk Road and various nomadic tribes that have inhabited the region. The country has a number of natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and minerals such as salt and sulfur. These resources have contributed to the country's economy, which is largely based on hydrocarbon exports.
Turkmenistan is generally considered to be isolated and authoritarian, with a low level of political and press freedom. The government has a strong hold on power and controls most aspects of society, including the media. However, the country has made some progress in recent years in terms of economic development and infrastructure.
Geography & terrain
Terrain is dominated by the Karakum desert, with mountains (the Kopet Dag) along the southern border with Iran. Climate is harshly arid and continental, with extreme temperature swings. It has a coastline on the landlocked Caspian Sea, but no access to open ocean. The vast, sparsely populated desert forms a significant natural barrier to invasion, reinforced by the mountains along its southern frontier.
| Afghanistan |
Turkmenistan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Government type | Islamic emirate | Presidential republic (authoritarian) |
| GDP | $17.8B | $49.8BLeads |
| GDP per capita | $417 | $6.5KLeads |
| Military expenditure | $278.3MLeads | $111.9M |
| Military expenditure per capita | $6 | $15Leads |
| Land military expenditure (estimation) | $222.6MLeads | $72.8M |
| Air military expenditure (estimation) | $55.7MLeads | $28.0M |
| Naval military expenditure (estimation) | n/a | $11.2M |
| Nuclear power | No | No |
| European Union | Not a member | Not a member |
| NATO | Not a member | Not a member |
Strengths & comparison
The capitals of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan are approximately 1 046 km apart (straight-line distance). There is a standard time difference of about 0.5 hours between them.
Based on shared language, currency, economic profile, borders and international groups, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan score a 15/100 similarity index. This is a fun, approximate metric — not a scientific one.
Excellent relation (7+/10) with both countries
Which side is each country closer to?
Comparing Afghanistan's and Turkmenistan's scores against the same third countries shows where each one has a clear edge. Afghanistan scores noticeably higher with: United States, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Russia, United Kingdom.Turkmenistan scores noticeably higher with: Pakistan, Iran, India, Poland, Israel.
The relation between Afghanistan and Turkmenistan has decreased recently by 0.2 points, reaching an overall score of 6.1 from a previous value of 6.3.
Score history
Let's suppose a hypothetical conflict occurs between both countries:
Solo scenario: Afghanistan vs Turkmenistan
Battle narrative
Initial phase
With both the bigger war chest and the stronger air force, Afghanistan is well placed to seize the initiative early, striking key military and infrastructure targets first.
Force composition
Afghanistan can also call on significantly more personnel, counting both active-duty and reserve forces. Turkmenistan also holds a clear naval edge.
Ground campaign
Afghanistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries. Khyber Pass would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The main historic route through the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan, long used for invasion, trade, and troop movement. Turkmenistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: The vast, sparsely populated desert forms a significant natural barrier to invasion, reinforced by the mountains along its southern frontier. Caspian Sea coast at Turkmenbashi would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The country's only significant seaport, controlling maritime access to the Caspian and links to Azerbaijan and Russia. Afghanistan's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Prolonged conflict
Turkmenistan's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. Afghanistan also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 1.6% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying Turkmenistan outright would likely prove costly given its terrain.
Overall assessment
Afghanistan enters this matchup as the stronger side on paper, with roughly a 62.0% probability of winning. That advantage would still need to be converted into an actual battlefield result against Turkmenistan, which real conflicts rarely guarantee.
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