The relation between Afghanistan and Sudan is NEUTRAL, with an overall score of 5.0 out of 10.
Chance of conflict between both countries: rare
Head to head: who leads each category
About this relationship
Afghanistan and Sudan are both members of the Arab League's broader diplomatic sphere as well as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and both currently face profound internal crises, Sudan having descended into a devastating civil war between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group since April 2023, echoing the pattern of fragmented, contested governance that has long characterized Afghanistan. Both nations have a long history of United Nations humanitarian and peacekeeping engagement, Sudan through missions addressing the earlier Darfur conflict and its current civil war, and Afghanistan through its now-concluded NATO-led coalition presence, though the two countries have little direct bilateral contact. Trade and diplomatic engagement between the two remain negligible, with contact occurring mainly through Islamic Cooperation and United Nations humanitarian forums addressing conflict-affected states.
The position in the international influence ranking of Afghanistan is 57, while Sudan is situated 21 places below in the ranking (position 78). Sudan maintains contact with 35 countries, while Afghanistan maintains contact with 34 countries. Afghanistan maintains an excellent relation with 6 countries, while in the case of Sudan, this figure drops to 0.
Afghanistan is a country located in South and Central Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the south and east, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north, and China to the far northeast. The country has a complex history and has been a battleground for various powers throughout its history.
In recent times, Afghanistan has been embroiled in conflict for several decades, starting with the Soviet invasion in 1979 and continuing with the civil war that followed. The country has also been a major theater of operations in the War on Terror, with the United States and other countries intervening in the country after the September 11th attacks in 2001.
Since then, Afghanistan has seen significant political and social upheaval, including the rise and fall of the Taliban, the establishment of a new government, and ongoing violence and conflict with various militant groups. The country has also struggled with issues such as corruption, poverty, and a lack of infrastructure and development.
Despite these challenges, Afghanistan has made some progress in recent years, including holding successful elections and making progress on issues such as women's rights and education. However, the country still faces many challenges and will likely continue to be a focus of international attention for the foreseeable future.
Geography & terrain
Landlocked, no coastline. Rugged and mountainous, dominated by the Hindu Kush range, with arid plains and deserts in the south and west. Climate is arid to semiarid, with harsh winters at altitude. Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries.
Sudan is a country in North Africa, bordered by Egypt to the north, the Red Sea to the northeast, Eritrea and Ethiopia to the east, South Sudan to the south, the Central African Republic to the southwest, Chad to the west, and Libya to the northwest. Sudan has a long and complex history, with a diverse population comprising various ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.
The country gained independence from British colonial rule in 1956, and since then, it has experienced a series of political and social conflicts, including civil wars, coups, and authoritarian governments. In 2019, Sudan underwent a major political transition, with the ousting of long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir and the establishment of a transitional government.
Sudan has abundant natural resources, including oil, gold, and agricultural land, but these resources have often been a source of conflict and corruption. The country has faced significant economic challenges, including high levels of poverty and unemployment, and has struggled with debt and inflation.
Sudan has a number of international and regional relationships, including with neighboring countries and with major global powers such as the United States and China. The country is a member of the African Union and the United Nations, and it plays a significant role in regional security and stability.
Geography & terrain
Terrain is mostly desert and semi-arid plains in the north, with the Nile forming a fertile corridor and some highlands (the Red Sea Hills, Nuba Mountains) breaking up the flatness. Climate is hot and arid to semi-arid. It has a Red Sea coastline in the northeast. The vast desert expanses act as a natural buffer against invasion, but the largely flat, open terrain elsewhere and long land borders leave it exposed.
| Government type | Islamic emirate | Transitional military government |
| GDP | $17.8B | $60.2BLeads |
| GDP per capita | $417 | $1.2KLeads |
| Military expenditure | $278.3M | $375.2MLeads |
| Military expenditure per capita | $6 | $7Leads |
| Land military expenditure (estimation) | $222.6M | $243.9MLeads |
| Air military expenditure (estimation) | $55.7M | $93.8MLeads |
| Naval military expenditure (estimation) | n/a | $37.5M |
| Nuclear power | No | No |
| European Union | Not a member | Not a member |
| NATO | Not a member | Not a member |
The capitals of Afghanistan and Sudan are approximately 4 222 km apart (straight-line distance). There is a standard time difference of about 2.5 hours between them.
Based on shared language, currency, economic profile, borders and international groups, Afghanistan and Sudan score a 10/100 similarity index. This is a fun, approximate metric — not a scientific one.
Excellent relation (7+/10) with both countries
Comparing Afghanistan's and Sudan's scores against the same third countries shows where each one has a clear edge. Afghanistan scores noticeably higher with: Germany, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United States.Sudan scores noticeably higher with: Pakistan, India, Palestine, Iran, China.
Let's suppose a hypothetical conflict occurs between both countries:
In a hypothetical conflict between Afghanistan and Sudan, probably, Afghanistan won't have any partner.
Pakistan will participate helping Sudan.
Initial phase
With both the bigger war chest and the stronger air force, Sudan is well placed to seize the initiative early, striking key military and infrastructure targets first.
Force composition
Sudan's advantage extends to naval power as well.
Ground campaign
Afghanistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries. Khyber Pass would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The main historic route through the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan, long used for invasion, trade, and troop movement. Sudan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: The vast desert expanses act as a natural buffer against invasion, but the largely flat, open terrain elsewhere and long land borders leave it exposed. Port Sudan would likely be a focal point of the campaign: Sudan's only major seaport on the Red Sea, the sole outlet for seaborne trade and military resupply. Sudan's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Prolonged conflict
Sudan's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. Afghanistan also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 1.6% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying Afghanistan outright would likely prove costly given its terrain.
Overall assessment
Overall, the numbers favor Sudan, giving it an estimated 52.5% chance of coming out on top. Turning that edge into a decisive win over Afghanistan — and holding any ground taken — would still be far from guaranteed.
Initial phase
Sudan's team's larger military budget and stronger air power give it an advantage in the initial stages of the conflict, with the ability to target key military positions and infrastructure.
Force composition
Sudan's team can also call on significantly more personnel, counting both active-duty and reserve forces. Sudan's team's advantage extends to naval power as well.
Ground campaign
Afghanistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries. Khyber Pass would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The main historic route through the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan, long used for invasion, trade, and troop movement. Sudan's team's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Coalition
Sudan's team goes into this conflict as a coalition of Pakistan and Sudan. Fighting as part of a coalition brings combined strength, though coordinating several countries also adds logistical complexity.
Prolonged conflict
Sudan's team's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. Sudan's team also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 2.3% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying Afghanistan's team outright would likely prove costly given its terrain.
Overall assessment
Overall, the numbers favor Sudan's team, giving it an estimated 75.6% chance of coming out on top. Turning that edge into a decisive win over Afghanistan's team — and holding any ground taken — would still be far from guaranteed.
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