Afghanistan
vs
South Sudan
The relation between Afghanistan and South Sudan is NEUTRAL, with an overall score of 5.0 out of 10.
Chance of conflict between both countries: rare
Head to head: who leads each category
Afghanistan
43.8M
Leads
South Sudan
12.2M
Afghanistan
$17.8B
Leads
South Sudan
$12.0B
Afghanistan
$278.3M
South Sudan
$2.0B
Leads
Afghanistan
#57
Leads
South Sudan
#144
About this relationship
Afghanistan and South Sudan, the world's newest country upon its 2011 independence from Sudan, are both frequently classified among the most fragile states globally, South Sudan having descended into a devastating civil war in 2013 just two years after independence, a crisis that has echoed the pattern of internal conflict long familiar to Afghanistan. Both countries have relied heavily on United Nations peacekeeping and humanitarian missions, South Sudan through the UN Mission in South Sudan and Afghanistan through its now-concluded NATO-led coalition presence, though the two nations have essentially no history of direct bilateral engagement. Trade and diplomatic contact between the two remain negligible given the considerable geographic distance separating East Africa from Central Asia, with contact occurring mainly through United Nations forums on fragile and conflict-affected states.
Strengths & comparison
The position in the international influence ranking of Afghanistan is 57, while South Sudan is situated 87 places below in the ranking (position 144). Afghanistan maintains contact with 34 countries, while South Sudan maintains contact with 17 countries. Afghanistan maintains an excellent relation with 6 countries, while in the case of South Sudan, this figure drops to 0.
About Afghanistan
Afghanistan is a country located in South and Central Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the south and east, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north, and China to the far northeast. The country has a complex history and has been a battleground for various powers throughout its history.
In recent times, Afghanistan has been embroiled in conflict for several decades, starting with the Soviet invasion in 1979 and continuing with the civil war that followed. The country has also been a major theater of operations in the War on Terror, with the United States and other countries intervening in the country after the September 11th attacks in 2001.
Since then, Afghanistan has seen significant political and social upheaval, including the rise and fall of the Taliban, the establishment of a new government, and ongoing violence and conflict with various militant groups. The country has also struggled with issues such as corruption, poverty, and a lack of infrastructure and development.
Despite these challenges, Afghanistan has made some progress in recent years, including holding successful elections and making progress on issues such as women's rights and education. However, the country still faces many challenges and will likely continue to be a focus of international attention for the foreseeable future.
Geography & terrain
Landlocked, no coastline. Rugged and mountainous, dominated by the Hindu Kush range, with arid plains and deserts in the south and west. Climate is arid to semiarid, with harsh winters at altitude. Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries.
About South Sudan
South Sudan is a country in East-Central Africa that gained independence from Sudan in 2011. It is bordered by Sudan to the north, Ethiopia to the east, Kenya to the southeast, Uganda to the south, the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the southwest, and the Central African Republic to the west.
Since its independence, South Sudan has been embroiled in conflict and political instability. In 2013, a civil war broke out between the government and opposition forces, leading to widespread violence and displacement. A peace agreement was signed in 2015, but the fighting has continued and the country has struggled to rebuild and stabilize.
South Sudan is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a weak economy that is heavily dependent on oil exports. The country has a very young population, with more than half of the population under the age of 18. It also has a high rate of illiteracy and limited access to education.
In recent years, there have been efforts to promote peace and reconciliation in South Sudan, including through negotiations and the deployment of peacekeeping forces. However, the situation in the country remains fragile and there are ongoing challenges to building a stable and prosperous society.
Geography & terrain
Landlocked, no coastline. Terrain is dominated by vast, seasonally flooded swamplands (the Sudd) and savanna plains, with highlands near the southern border. Climate is tropical with pronounced wet and dry seasons. The wetlands and seasonal flooding form a significant natural barrier that has historically hampered outside movement, though the open plains elsewhere offer little protection.
| Afghanistan |
South Sudan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Government type | Islamic emirate | Presidential republic |
| GDP | $17.8BLeads | $12.0B |
| GDP per capita | $417 | $1.1KLeads |
| Military expenditure | $278.3M | $2.0BLeads |
| Military expenditure per capita | $6 | $166Leads |
| Land military expenditure (estimation) | $222.6M | $1.7BLeads |
| Air military expenditure (estimation) | $55.7M | $304.2MLeads |
| Naval military expenditure (estimation) | n/a | n/a |
| Nuclear power | No | No |
| European Union | Not a member | Not a member |
| NATO | Not a member | Not a member |
Strengths & comparison
The capitals of Afghanistan and South Sudan are approximately 5 086 km apart (straight-line distance). There is a standard time difference of about 1.5 hours between them.
Based on shared language, currency, economic profile, borders and international groups, Afghanistan and South Sudan score a 10/100 similarity index. This is a fun, approximate metric — not a scientific one.
Excellent relation (7+/10) with both countries
Which side is each country closer to?
Comparing Afghanistan's and South Sudan's scores against the same third countries shows where each one has a clear edge. Afghanistan scores noticeably higher with: Germany, Russia, Turkey, United States, Bangladesh.South Sudan scores noticeably higher with: India, Israel, Poland.
Let's suppose a hypothetical conflict occurs between both countries:
Solo scenario: Afghanistan vs South Sudan
Battle narrative
Initial phase
South Sudan's larger military budget and stronger air power give it an advantage in the initial stages of the conflict, with the ability to target key military positions and infrastructure.
Force composition
Afghanistan can also call on significantly more personnel, counting both active-duty and reserve forces.
Ground campaign
Afghanistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries. Khyber Pass would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The main historic route through the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan, long used for invasion, trade, and troop movement. South Sudan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: The wetlands and seasonal flooding form a significant natural barrier that has historically hampered outside movement, though the open plains elsewhere offer little protection. Juba would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The capital on the White Nile holds the country's main airport and is the seat of government and military command. Afghanistan's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Prolonged conflict
Afghanistan's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. South Sudan also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 16.9% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying Afghanistan outright would likely prove costly given its terrain.
Overall assessment
Afghanistan would be more likely to prevail in this matchup, with an estimated 60.1% probability of winning. Achieving a decisive victory over South Sudan — let alone occupying it — would likely be more difficult than that headline number suggests.
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