Afghanistan
vs
Pakistan
The relation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is VERY BAD, with an overall score of 0.07 out of 10.
Chance of conflict between both countries: high
Head to head: who leads each category
Afghanistan
43.8M
Pakistan
255.2M
Leads
Afghanistan
$17.8B
Pakistan
$407.3B
Leads
Afghanistan
$278.3M
Pakistan
$10.2B
Leads
Afghanistan
#57
Pakistan
#16
Leads
About this relationship
Pakistan and Afghanistan share a long, turbulent relationship marked by a disputed colonial-era border, deep ethnic and tribal ties across it, and, since the Taliban's 2021 return to power in Kabul, an escalating armed conflict that by 2026 amounted to open warfare between the two states.
Pakistan never recognized the Durand Line, drawn by Britain in 1893, as a fully settled border, and decades of instability in Afghanistan, including Pakistani support for the Taliban insurgency during the 2001-2021 war, shaped a fraught but interdependent relationship. Islamabad had hoped the Taliban's return would curb cross-border militancy, but the Pakistani Taliban, or TTP, instead intensified attacks from Afghan sanctuary, souring relations badly.
Pakistan has responded with repeated airstrikes on alleged militant targets inside Afghanistan and mass deportations of Afghan refugees, while Afghan forces have launched retaliatory strikes across the border, producing hundreds of casualties in 2026 alone according to UN reporting.
Periodic ceasefires, including one brokered around the March 2026 Eid holiday, have repeatedly collapsed amid mutual accusations, with an April 2026 strike on a university deepening the crisis.
As of August 2026, the conflict remains active and unresolved, with sporadic strikes, closed border crossings, and continued mass deportations straining a relationship both sides describe as approaching open war.
Strengths & comparison
The position in the international influence ranking of Pakistan is 16, while Afghanistan is situated 41 places below in the ranking (position 57). Pakistan maintains contact with 92 countries, while Afghanistan maintains contact with 34 countries. Pakistan maintains an excellent relation with 16 countries, while in the case of Afghanistan, this figure drops to 6.
About Afghanistan
Afghanistan is a country located in South and Central Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the south and east, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north, and China to the far northeast. The country has a complex history and has been a battleground for various powers throughout its history.
In recent times, Afghanistan has been embroiled in conflict for several decades, starting with the Soviet invasion in 1979 and continuing with the civil war that followed. The country has also been a major theater of operations in the War on Terror, with the United States and other countries intervening in the country after the September 11th attacks in 2001.
Since then, Afghanistan has seen significant political and social upheaval, including the rise and fall of the Taliban, the establishment of a new government, and ongoing violence and conflict with various militant groups. The country has also struggled with issues such as corruption, poverty, and a lack of infrastructure and development.
Despite these challenges, Afghanistan has made some progress in recent years, including holding successful elections and making progress on issues such as women's rights and education. However, the country still faces many challenges and will likely continue to be a focus of international attention for the foreseeable future.
Geography & terrain
Landlocked, no coastline. Rugged and mountainous, dominated by the Hindu Kush range, with arid plains and deserts in the south and west. Climate is arid to semiarid, with harsh winters at altitude. Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries.
About Pakistan
Pakistan is a country in South Asia that is bordered by India to the east, China to the north, Afghanistan and Iran to the west, and the Arabian Sea to the south. It has a population of over 220 million people and is the world's fifth-most populous country.
Pakistan was created in 1947 as a homeland for Muslims in the region of British India, and it has a long and complicated history. It has experienced periods of military rule as well as democratic governments, and it has a diverse mix of ethnic and religious groups. The country has a predominantly Muslim population, but there are also significant minority communities of Hindus, Christians, and other religions.
Pakistan has had strained relations with its neighbors, particularly India, with whom it has fought several wars. The disputed region of Kashmir has been a major source of tension between the two countries. Pakistan has also been involved in conflicts with Afghanistan and has been a key player in the war on terrorism.
Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country and has one of the largest militaries in the world. It is a member of the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and it plays an important role in regional politics. The country's economy is largely based on agriculture, but it also has a growing industrial sector and is home to a number of multinational companies.
Geography & terrain
Highly varied terrain: the Karakoram and Himalayan ranges in the north, the fertile Indus River plain at the center, and the Balochistan plateau and desert in the south and west. Climate ranges from alpine in the mountains to arid and monsoon-influenced in the lowlands. Coastline on the Arabian Sea. The northern mountains form a strong natural barrier, but the Indus plain and western passes have historically been major invasion routes into South Asia.
| Afghanistan |
Pakistan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Government type | Islamic emirate | Federal parliamentary republic |
| GDP | $17.8B | $407.3BLeads |
| GDP per capita | $417 | $1.6KLeads |
| Military expenditure | $278.3M | $10.2BLeads |
| Military expenditure per capita | $6 | $40Leads |
| Land military expenditure (estimation) | $222.6M | $5.6BLeads |
| Air military expenditure (estimation) | $55.7M | $2.5BLeads |
| Naval military expenditure (estimation) | n/a | $2.0B |
| Nuclear power | No | Yes |
| European Union | Not a member | Not a member |
| NATO | Not a member | Not a member |
Strengths & comparison
The capitals of Afghanistan and Pakistan are approximately 367 km apart (straight-line distance). There is a standard time difference of about 0.5 hours between them.
Based on shared language, currency, economic profile, borders and international groups, Afghanistan and Pakistan score a 15/100 similarity index. This is a fun, approximate metric — not a scientific one.
Very bad relation (3-/10) with both countries
Which side is each country closer to?
Comparing Afghanistan's and Pakistan's scores against the same third countries shows where each one has a clear edge. Afghanistan scores noticeably higher with: Indonesia, Germany, Palestine, India, United States.Pakistan scores noticeably higher with: Iran, South Korea, Poland, Syria, United Kingdom.
The relation between Afghanistan and Pakistan has improved recently by 0.1 points, reaching an overall score of 0.1 from a previous value of 0.0.
Score history
Let's suppose a hypothetical conflict occurs between both countries:
Solo scenario: Afghanistan vs Pakistan
Allies scenario: Team Afghanistan vs Team Pakistan
In a hypothetical conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, probably, Indonesia will participate helping Afghanistan.
No country will participate helping Pakistan.
Battle narrative
Initial phase
With both the bigger war chest and the stronger air force, Pakistan is well placed to seize the initiative early, striking key military and infrastructure targets first.
Force composition
Pakistan can also call on significantly more personnel, counting both active-duty and reserve forces. Pakistan's advantage extends to naval power as well.
Ground campaign
Afghanistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: Famously difficult to conquer and hold: the high passes and compartmentalized valleys favor local defenders and have worn down successive outside armies over centuries. Khyber Pass would likely be a focal point of the campaign: The main historic route through the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan, long used for invasion, trade, and troop movement. Pakistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: The northern mountains form a strong natural barrier, but the Indus plain and western passes have historically been major invasion routes into South Asia. Khyber Pass would likely be a focal point of the campaign: A historic mountain pass linking Pakistan to Afghanistan, long the primary overland route for invasions and trade between South and Central Asia. Pakistan's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Prolonged conflict
Pakistan's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. Pakistan also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 2.5% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying Afghanistan outright would likely prove costly given its terrain.
Overall assessment
Pakistan would be more likely to prevail in this matchup, with an estimated 74.1% probability of winning. Achieving a decisive victory over Afghanistan — let alone occupying it — would likely be more difficult than that headline number suggests.
Force composition
Pakistan's team can also call on significantly more personnel, counting both active-duty and reserve forces. Afghanistan's team also holds a clear naval edge. On the ground, Pakistan's team commits a larger share of its budget to land forces.
Ground campaign
Pakistan's terrain could make a rapid ground campaign difficult: The northern mountains form a strong natural barrier, but the Indus plain and western passes have historically been major invasion routes into South Asia. Khyber Pass would likely be a focal point of the campaign: A historic mountain pass linking Pakistan to Afghanistan, long the primary overland route for invasions and trade between South and Central Asia. Afghanistan's team's larger population could also support a prolonged resistance.
Coalition
Afghanistan's team goes into this conflict as a coalition of Indonesia and Afghanistan. Fighting as part of a coalition brings combined strength, though coordinating several countries also adds logistical complexity.
Prolonged conflict
Afghanistan's team's stronger economy could help sustain military operations in a prolonged conflict. Pakistan's team also devotes a larger share of its economy to defense (about 2.5% of GDP), a more militarized posture that could be easier to sustain over time. Occupying Pakistan's team outright would likely prove costly given its terrain. Afghanistan's team's members are spread far apart, which could make sustained logistics harder the longer the conflict runs.
Overall assessment
Afghanistan's team enters this matchup as the stronger side on paper, with roughly a 54.1% probability of winning. That advantage would still need to be converted into an actual battlefield result against Pakistan's team, which real conflicts rarely guarantee.
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